Did A Family Turnaround Begin in the 1990s? 2003

The State of Our Unions

The Social Health of Marriage in America

2003

Sidebar: Did A Family Turnaround Begin in the 1990s?

Barbara Dafoe Whitehead

David Popenoe

© Copyright 2003

Much has been written about the possibility of a "family turnaround" beginning in the late 1990s—that is, about a reversal of the family weakening trends of recent decades of the kind highlighted in the annual State of Our Unions reports. If there were such a turnaround, the steady increases in out-of-wedlock births, single parent families, divorce, and nonmarital cohabitation would end. There would be a surge of interest in forming lifelong unions and in having babies born to married couples. There would be fewer divorces and fewer parents with children cohabiting as a chosen way of life. In short, marriage and children would be reconnected. Has such a turnaround actually begun? While the statistics discussed in this annual report deal mostly with long-term (i.e. decade by decade) trends, here we will review the short-term trends of the past few years.

Most prominent in the public discussion have been recent trends in the African American community, where evidence for a family turnaround has been the strongest. The proportion of out-of-wedlock births among black women, long the highest in the nation, declined from 70.4% in 1994 to 68.6% in 2001. Although modest, this change is the first improvement in this statistic for many decades. By the same token, the percentage of black children living in two-parent families increased from 34% to 39% between 1996 and 2002

Are similar changes underway in the rest of America? A few statistics hint of this possibility. The percentage of children in two-parent families increased nationwide by about one point between 1998 and 2002, from 68% to 69%, and there was a slight increase between 1999 and 2002 in the percentage of persons age 35-44 who were married. Also, the divorce rate has continued its slow but steady decline since reaching a peak in the early 1980s, and an upturn occurred in the past few years in the percentage of married persons who said their marriages were "very happy."

The problem in positing a "family turnaround" based on these changes is that the changes have been recent, small, and in some cases based on samples, and thus subject to sampling error. Also, they may have been generated by the strong economy of the 1990s or even, in part, by the sudden impact of welfare reform. Therefore, we cannot have full confidence that they will continue.

Other recent trends may presage a continuing weakening of the family. The marriage rate continues its long-term drop, which began around 1970. This drop is partly due to the sharp increase in the number of cohabiting couples, including couples with children, which was the most dramatic ten-year family change documented by the 2000 census and has continued in the past few years. Nationwide, the proportion of out-of-wedlock births increased again in 2000 and 2002 following several years of leveling off, probably due in large part to the growth of nonmarital cohabitation. A Census Bureau report has found that childlessness among American women is on the rise over the long term: in 2000, 19% of women age 40-44 were childless, compared to just 10% in 1980. And the birth rate (total fertility), after rising during the 1990s, fell back in 2001 below its 1990 level.

It is too soon to speak of anything so significant as a "family turnaround." The only thing that can be said with confidence at this time is that many of the family trends toward a weakening family structure in the past few decades have slowed dramatically, and in some cases leveled off. What the future holds, of course, awaits the coming to maturity of the next generation.